CONFLICT IN A FRAGMENTING WORLD ORDER

The Naval Barracks, Amsterdam 13-15 October 2025

Marine Establishment, Kattenburgerstraat 7 1018 JZ Amsterdam

Hosted by the Netherlands Defence Academy

When, during the Cold War, Barbara Tuchman wrote The March of Folly (from Troy to Vietnam), conflict could still be understood—at least partly—through linear reasoning. While war was not always rational, the behaviour of actors could generally be placed within a framework of ascending or descending positions in the evolution of world order.

Today, the global order is again in transition. However, rather than striving toward a new equilibrium, actors increasingly use fragmentation to invoke change. Yet, fragmentation itself may not be a temporary phase—it appears to be solidifying as a defining characteristic of the emerging world order. Perhaps this is merely a passing stage until one (or several) new superpowers establish a new system. But until then, The March of Folly—pursuing policy contrary to self-interest—has reached unprecedented heights.

In this fragmented world order, everything is weaponised. The most effective weapon is no longer brute force but disruption—a force that fuels further fragmentation. Psychological warfare has resurged, drawing entire societies into perpetual states of conflict. Hybrid warfare now infiltrates even children’s television, where propaganda finds its way into narratives once deemed harmless. Big data and artificial intelligence have transformed targeting into a video game played by global operators with real-world consequences.

Despite the dominance of virtual warfare, its victims are very real. The primary casualties are non-combatants trapped between rival factions that use them as pawns in their strategic games. The ultimate objective is openly framed as a zero-sum competition—one where winners, defined by cultural allegiance, take everything, while losers lose all.

Tuchman’s March of Folly has arrived at a new stage where irrationality has become the most rational path to power. The virtual has overtaken the real. Madness has become the new normal. In this climate, the words of Thomas Hobbes, written nearly 400 years ago, feel eerily prescient:

"To this war of every man against every man, this also is consequence; that nothing can be unjust. The notions of right and wrong, justice and injustice, have there no place. Where there is no common power, there is no law; where no law, no injustice."

ISMS met in Stockholm in 2024 after Sweden and Finland had abandoned generations of neutrality to join NATO. The resulting book of abstracts and a volume on building defence capabilities are valuable contributions to this new world in which we accept more defence effort is demanded.

This year’s ISMS conference builds on last year’s. Our themes relate to conflict in a fragmenting world order affecting small democratic countries: how is war changing? How will societies under threat adapt? How must military forces adjust to meet new challenges? What strategies might be effective? Military science research has never been more critical in these uncertain and dangerous times. Join us in Amsterdam from 13-15 October 2025.

Some notes for participants:

The venue has limited space. Beyond the panel room capacity, presenters may be directed towards a poster session, allowing their work to be displayed throughout the conference. Priority for in-person attendance will be given to those selected by working group chairs for panels and roundtables.
Panels will generally be limited to four or five presenters at the discretion of working group chairs.
Roundtables and moderated discussions may have more scheduled speakers.
Participants are invited to propose research panels and roundtables to develop key themes.

Abstracts of up to 300 words are requested through the conference portal [link to follow]

Please consult the website’s working group pages for details about ongoing projects.

ISMS has a publication agreement with NATO’s Defence Education Enhancement Project (DEEP) for free online publication of collections and book-length manuscripts of interest to ISMS member institutions and partners for peace.

Please contact the secretary, David Last

or president of ISMS, Rene Moelker if you have questions or experience difficulties submitting an abstract or proposal.

Timeline:

Abstracts will be accepted until 30 April
Early bird registration at a reduced price will open on 1 May (200 €)
Full-price registration will open on 1 June (250 €)
The Conference Committee will notify authors of acceptance by 15 June to allow for travel and funding requests
Registration will close when the venue reaches capacity
Registration fee 200 € (early bird), after 1 June 250 €

Each accepted abstract will be presented in one of the ten ISMS Working Groups, which are as follows: Armed Forces and Society; Defence Management and Economics; Law and Ethics; Leadership, Command and Basic Competences; Military Education; Military History; Military Technology; Security and Defence Policy; Strategy; and War Studies. Writers are asked to specify one or two preferred Working Groups for their abstract. More information on the Working Groups can be found here.